Predictator - Nayib Bukele
Why has El Salvador's Nayib Bukele been so popular for so long?
This edition of Predictator focuses on El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele. He is highly popular, but El Salvador’s democracy has eroded under his rule. What makes him so beloved?
About Predictator
Pollitik’s Predictator tracks support for authoritarian and autocratizing leaders — leaders of countries with consistently low or significantly reduced levels of liberal democracy on their watch since 2010, per V-Dem. Popularity data are monthly estimates from the Executive Approval Project (EAP).
World’s Coolest Dictator
Nayib Bukele’s Twitter profile once described him as “the world’s coolest dictator.” Both parts of this moniker ring true.
Since taking office in June 2019, V-Dem’s ratings of liberal democracy in El Salvador have been halved, from 0.44 (2019) to 0.21 (2021). His regime consistently threatens democratic institutions and violates Salvadorans’ civil liberties. Yet, he is among the most popular leaders in the world.
According to estimates by the EAP, Bukele’s initial approval rating was around 70%. After a month in office, it jumped 14 points. After his first year in office, in June of 2020, Bukele’s rating stood at a whopping 92.5%. Over the next six months, Bukele’s popularity didn’t drop below 90%. In all, he enjoyed an impressive Honeymoon period.
Eventually, however, his approval ratings ceased to defy gravity. In September 2020, his approval ratings registered an estimated 91.4%. Then they entered a year-long slide, hitting a low point of 65.9% in September 2021.
What changed?
It is possible that, by mid-2021, Salvadorans were holding Bukele accountable for democratic erosion. This is in line with new research in political science showing that, in new democracies, incumbents are punished for democratic decay. But this explanation seems, at best, partial. By the end of 2021, Bukele’s approval ratings recovered, and have been fluctuating between a floor of 78% and a ceiling of 92% ever since.
So, while some Salvadorans may have been temporarily fed up with Bukele’s autocratic tendencies, many Salvadorans appear to agree that he is the world’s coolest dictator, and they are cool with that.
Tackling Big Problems
Like many Central American countries today, El Salvador is fighting battles against crime, COVID, and the world economy. According to The Economist, Nayib Bukele is getting the public’s attention as he tackles these big national problems.
After taking office, Bukele created a Territorial Control Plan, which boosted the amount of law enforcement (police officers and soldiers) in areas under gang control or long-time influence. As reported by Insight Crime, the number of total homicides at the end of 2020 was around 1,330, a 45% decrease from the same figure at the end of 2019. More recently, Bukele has taken more extreme measures to fight criminal gangs, including denying due process and other civil liberties.
Despite this, or perhaps because of this, a broad majority of Salvadorans still approve of how Bukele is doing his job.
Bukele also came up with some interesting ways to combat COVID-19 transmission. In 2020, he temporarily ceased economic activity in non-essential sectors of the economy. According to the World Bank, in 2021, economic growth rebounded to 10.7 percent, thanks to exports and remittances, which buoyed consumption. El Salvador's economy is expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2022 and 1.9 percent in 2023.
Salvadorans may also be applauding Bukele’s economic policies. In 2020, he set in motion a policy that would increase the minimum wage by 20%. Bukele, in turn, committed to subsidizing Salvadoran companies for 12 months to cover the increased wages and prevent an increase in the cost of products to consumers. Bukele framed this policy as a way to blunt global inflation's impact on the poor, though economists are demure.
Predicator’s Takeaway
President Nayib Bukele is highly popular. Predictator attributes this to policy wins on crime, COVID-19, and wages. Given the formidability of these challenges, the Salvadoran public appears to be giving Bukele a pass on his authoritarian behaviors. While democratic erosion may have caught up with him temporarily, many Salvadorans may view solutions to big national problems as a reasonable tradeoff for democratic institutions.