Crisis Spotlight: Ukraine’s Forever War Nears a Turning Point
As tensions in the East come to a head, will Putin’s Faustian bargain pay off?
Headlines across the globe have been dominated by the unprecedented buildup of Russian forces along the border with Ukraine. At the time of writing, there are an estimated 190,000 troops stationed as close as 10km from the Ukrainian border. US media and intelligence experts are reporting that artillery and short-range missiles are being moved into firing positions. Recent escalations have brought Europe to the brink of a major war, something the continent hasn’t seen since the fall of the Soviet Union.
As the Russia-Ukraine crisis intensifies, we asked how the world leaders involved fared in the eyes of their citizens. The results are staggering. Over the past several years, Vladimir Putin has been facing a slowing economy and an electorate growing sour since the peak of his approval during the 2014 Annexation of Crimea. We previously reported that last time Putin threatened Ukraine with a similar buildup in April 2021, his popularity was virtually unaffected.
This time is different. Since November 2021, Putin has seen a net gain of 12 points to his approval rating as measured by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent agency measuring public opinion. We attribute this to a “rally around the flag” effect caused by Moscow’s enhanced efforts to create a subtext for invasion. The narrative of Ukrainian NATO membership leading to a Western-backed attack against Russians in Donbass, and maybe even in Russia itself, seems to have compelled citizens to coalesce behind their Commander-in-Chief. In creating a common enemy that threatens Russian national security, Putin has tapped into nationalist undercurrents that had been fading amid years of economic stagnation and rampant corruption.
On the other hand, NATO leaders, particularly those responsible for the West’s diplomatic efforts, appear to be in a much worse position with their voters. Olaf Scholz, the new Chancellor of Germany, has had his honeymoon with German voters cut short as his net approval drops from a high of 17% to 1% over just two months in office. Joe Biden has sunk further underwater, reaching a new bottom of -8% of Americans approving of his presidency. Emmanuel Macron, who faces French voters again in March, seems to have kept his ratings from collapsing entirely as he climbs from a low of -26% back to the -20% he had in late 2021.
Great take!