Campaign Tracker: France

Amidst political crisis in Europe, French presidential campaigns are taking an interesting turn ahead of April’s elections

Welcome to the second installment of Pollitik’s Campaign Tracker! This week we focus on  France, where the Russian-Ukraine crisis is shaping the race for the French presidency which begins with a first-round of presidential elections on April 10th followed by a second on April 24th. 

Though the world experienced an immediate wave of reaction after the invasion, and global admiration for Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelnsky has surged in a classic rally-around-the-flag scenario, he is not the only leader who is gaining national support. President Macron has seen a significant bump in approval after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This likely reflects his diplomatic efforts to mediate the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and his support for Ukrainian sovereignty, a popular stance among the French people. 

The left-hand side of the graphic below displays President Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings. In January, Macron sat at a solid 37.5%. But after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, his approval jumped to 43.2% — almost 6 points. Vote intentions for Macron spiked, as well. As the right-hand side of the graphic indicates, his intentions rose from 25% to 30% throughout the past month.

Macron’s most significant right-wing challengers  – Marine Le Pen (RN-ID); Valérie Pécresse (LR-EPP); and Éric Zemmour (REC-NI) –  have become entangled in a plethora of past endorsements and connections to Russia and Putin. Le Pen, who carries the second-highest percentage of voter intentions (17%), has received financial support from Russian banks, has publicly praised Putin’s leadership, and justified the Russian annexation of Crimea. 

Other opponents like Pécresse (11%) and Zemmour (11%) have also been scrutinized for previous ties to Russia. For example, regardless of her condemning Russia’s invasion, critics have noted that Pécresse herself speaks Russian and had a close friend in her campaign who held considerable positions in a couple Russian companies. Zemmour went so far as stating that France should implement a limited open-border policy to specific Ukrainian refugees with ‘French ties’. 

Altogether, these pro-Russian missteps have helped propel Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT), the most prominent left-wing candidate, past Pécresse and Zemmour and into third place in the race (14%). Mélenchon has also benefited from the other left-wing candidate, Christiane Taubira, dropping out of the race. If current mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo (PS-S&D), follows suit, Mélenchon is well positioned to capture the 2-3% of French voters who support her. Moreso, the surrender of Anne Hidalgo could result in Mélenchon garnering more voter intentions than Le Pen and becoming the candidate who faces Macron in the second-round of elections. 

Though the Russia-Ukraine crisis has bolstered Macron’s candidacy, he has leveraged the spotlight to campaign for his ambitious economic policies, including state interventionism, lower taxes, higher retirement ages, and investment in big tech. The French economy is a major factor that will shape election results, especially since Macron’s five-year tenure has been mired with high unemployment rates and sluggish growth. 

The future of the French economy is a highly-contested issue. Mélenchon has campaigned successfully for greater worker protections and higher minimum wage. Whether these economic issues can ultimately sway enough French voters to abandon an incumbent battling Putin remains to be seen.